节点：下游（终端消费/应用）位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：5/10
美国银行周二警示，押注美联储因油价上涨采取鹰派应对的投资者或误判政策动向。该行指出，供应冲击可能导致利率维持稳定，甚至触发大幅下调。自美伊冲突升级以来，两年期美债收益率与油价飙升同步波动，反映市场对借贷成本上行的预期，但美银经济学家Aditya Bhave强调，这种预期“可能存在偏差”。
Bhave认为，能源冲击未必引致政策趋紧，因这可能加剧央行物价稳定与就业支持双重使命的矛盾。他在报告中提及，政策分布尾部风险增厚——既存在长期维持利率不变的可能性，也有加息的尾部风险，同时大幅降息的概率亦在扩大。本月以来，短期美债收益率已飙升约20个基点，交易员当前对今年美联储降息幅度的预期为40个基点，而美伊冲突爆发前该预期曾超60个基点。
尽管油价周二大幅回落（上一交易日曾突破每桶100美元），但中东紧张局势仍未..
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