节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：3/10
4月6日，高盛发布铜市场展望，预计2026年全球精炼铜将出现更大规模过剩，同时下调当年铜价及需求增长预期。该行将2026年精炼铜过剩量从38万吨上调至49万吨，铜价平均预测从每吨12850美元降至12650美元，需求增速从2.0%下调至1.6%。
需求下调的核心逻辑是能源因素驱动的全球经济放缓——高盛经济学家估算，能源价格上涨或使全球GDP增速减少0.4个百分点。不过该行指出，铜的需求韧性仍强于其他金属，反映其战略与结构性价值日益凸显。
在产量假设不变的前提下，需求疲软将推动库存显著增加，美国以外市场或接近供需平...
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