节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
伦敦金属交易所（LME）工业金属价格攀升至历史新高，核心驱动为中东冲突引发铝价异动，叠加铜价近期复苏态势。LME六种主要金属指数近四周累计上涨近12%，周四收盘创历史最高点，本周涨幅达3.6%；自伊朗冲突爆发以来，铝价累计上涨约15%，而中东地区贡献全球约9%的铝产量。
铝在LME指数中权重居首，与铜合计占指数权重近四分之三。摩根大通警示，铝行业正步入“黑洞”阶段，即便霍尔木兹海峡通航恢复，全球铝市场仍将面临严重且长期的供应中断；该行预判铝价或突破每吨4000美元，因行业将出现25年来最大规模供应短缺，2022年乌克兰冲突曾推动铝价创每吨4073.50美元历史新高..
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