节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：7/10
镍不锈钢周内整体重心下移，前期印尼出口管制扰动市场情绪，反转后盘面回落。部分多头于上行通道选择解套了结，前期印尼国企接管镍系商品政策尚不明确。
印尼拟将煤炭、棕榈油等战略性自然资源出口贸易权收归国有，交由指定国企独家统筹专营，目前回应镍系产品不在该批资源名单内，镍铁是否纳入铁合金范畴尚未可知，产业链担忧有所降温。青山缩减镍铁产能排产，资源整合于即将投产的先锋电解铝项目，核心解决电力短缺错配影响。
四月以来镍铁受上游配额等影响同比产量持续下行，成交价处于高位，成本高企更多体现底部支撑，对上方拉动效果有限。印尼ESDM冻结部分企..IUP运营活动，被冻结资质矿企有90天宽限期补报2026年RKA8，逾期未合规或遭永久撤销IUP采矿许可证，IUP为长期监管项目，短期刺激不足。
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