节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利空参考度：6/10


关注库存及政策走向 铝价震荡【机构评论】

来源：金源期货

上周，美国总统特朗普与日本达成关税协议后，欧盟与美国之间的贸易谈判也取得进展，海外避险情绪随之回落。在国内，工信部淘汰老旧产能的消息持续带动市场情绪升温，但短期内情绪过热，存在修复需求，下半周市场情绪稍有降温。

从基本面来看，供应端近期绝大部分产能变动属于置换，贵州少量产能继续复产，开工产能较上周微幅增加1万吨。下游则面临淡季需求疲软、高铝价压制以及关税不确定性的三重压力，铝加工周度开工率持续微幅下滑。电解铝锭库存累计至51万吨，较上周四增加1.2万Ő..

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