节点：钢材下游制造位置：下游情绪：利空参考度：6/10


社库持续攀升 沪铝承压震荡【机构评论】

来源：国投期货

上周，沪铝2509合约收盘价位20760元，涨幅达1.22% 。在宏观层面，美国商务部长表明8月1日关税上调最后期限不再延展。美国已与多个主要国家达成关税协定，中美即将开启新一轮谈判，超预期对抗可能性较低，风险情绪处于较好状态。不过，近期工业品在普遍大幅上涨后，存在超买引发的调整空间。本周美联储会议大概率维持利率不变，需关注特朗普拜访美联储后鲍威尔表态是否出现边际性变化。

供应方面，近期国内电解铝运行产能稳定维持在4390 – 4400万吨区间，短期内尚无产能变动的预期。需求端，SMM数据显示，上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业开工率小幅下滑0.1个百分点，降至58.7%。铝板带成品库存处于高位，6月出口量同比与环比均下降，7月海外订单呈现疲软态势。铝线缆领域部分因特高压订单的支撑，开工情况边际有所改善。随着新特高压项目即将招标，8月开工率有望迈入回暖阶段。铝型材领域，建筑型材受房地产市场低迷影响，需求清淡；工ĸ..

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