位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：2/10


摩根士丹利周五发布观点，预计美联储在今年剩余三次利率会议上，均会宣布降息25个基点。此前，该行预测仅在9月和12月各降息25个基点。

美联储将于9月16 – 17日召开利率会议，市场普遍认为决策者届时会降息25个基点，甚至存在降息50个基点的可能性。后续美联储还将在10月和12月举行利率会议。

美联储于去年9月开启降息周期，在去年最后三次利率会议上累计降息100个基点，联邦基金利率目标区间下调至4.25% – 4.50%。

今年以来，美联储已连续五次在利率会议上维持利率不变，主要原因是特朗普的激进关税措施引发通胀重新抬头风险。

不过，美联储主席鲍威尔上月暗示，鉴于劳动力市场风险上升，9月会议可能降息，但同时也警告通胀仍构成威胁。

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