位置：上游情绪：利好参考度：5/10


反转！期螺大涨65点 钢价能否上冲3400创出新？近期，“反内卷”和“雅江水电概念”推动螺纹钢价格强势冲高，从七月中旬3100左右一度涨至3350左右，市场热度高涨，“废钢起飞”之声不断。然而仅一周后，受限于仓及炒作影响，黑色系整体大幅回落，焦煤跌停，期螺大跌。但一天后，又因限产传闻，期螺迅猛拉起。28日螺纹出现反转，午后收盘至3347，全天上涨65元，涨幅1.98%，接近近期新高。

不少人发现，期螺暴涨时废钢涨幅不大，期螺回落两天，废钢也基本跌回。刚加大加工力度的基地，经营状况瞬间遇冷。那么废钢能否回升？其实，盘面的暴涨暴跌多为投机行为，与成品材成交量及上游废钢实际脱节。本轮盘面大幅波动，现货成交量和钢厂订单并无太大突破。焦炭第四轮提涨，铁水成本上升，废钢性价比提高，仍有支撑。如沙老大本轮涨50后未回调，...

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