节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：8/10


精炼镍维持过剩格局 不锈钢需求疲软

宏观层面，中美会晤促使市场情绪趋向稳定。然而，美联储虽如期降息25BP，但其表态偏鹰，使得后市利率路径充满不确定性，引发市场担忧。

纯镍市场依旧呈现过剩态势，市场成交表现平平。硫酸镍方面，成本支撑稳固，下游三元需求显著好转，推动硫酸镍价格偏强运行。

镍矿市场，印尼与菲律宾矿商持续挺价，后市的不确定性主要集中在印尼RKAB审批的落地情况。镍铁价格以阴跌为主，核心原因是不锈钢需求偏..

不锈钢市场“银十”成色不足，需求疲软，社会库存小幅增加。

操作策略上，建议对镍不锈钢进行区间操作。需注意的是，市场存在诸多不确定性风险，如地缘政治、美联储政策、关税扰动、中国经济复苏以及印尼和菲律宾的产业政策等，这些因素都可能对镍及不锈钢市场产生影响，投资者应密切关注并谨慎决策。

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