节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：6/10
美元指数回落 沪铝震荡上涨【机构评论】（来源：一德期货 2025-12-01）
原铝日均产量保持稳定，即期冶炼利润因电解铝价格下跌有所回落；10月份行业平均成本、最高成本分别为15889、19477元/吨。消费端，国内现货转为贴水（受价格上升影响）；下游龙头企业开工率环比微升0.3%，铝线缆因电网订单回升，其他板块持平；铝锭及铝棒去库3.15万吨，显示价格回落后国内需求增加明显；海外库存大增后回落，现货贴水收窄，欧美贸易高溢价体现需求韧性，叠加减产，内外价差再次走阔。
氧化铝现货价格趋稳；周度运行产能环比小增，进口窗口维持打开加剧过剩局面；总库存继续增加（电解铝厂补库、港口库存上升）；当前现货价格下亏损幅度有限，减产规模或远不及上次；未来两个月到期仓单量较大，或进一步压制现货；明年上半年仍有大量新增产能，供需压力仍较大。
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