节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10
供应方面：国内电解铝运行产能稳定在4400万吨/年上方。天山铝业二期项目逐步投产，计划年内释放12万吨产能，剩余12万吨预计2026年上半年投产。海外市场，阿达罗与力勤合资的印尼电解铝厂一期项目启动投产，年内预计投产约8万吨，2026年10月有望实现50万吨满产。
需求方面：下游需求呈现分化特征。车企年末冲量带动车轮毂、汽车板、电池壳、电池箔、汽车型材等领域需求相对稳健；建筑行业表现低迷，铝板带、建筑型材等领域面临订单下滑压力；铝线缆需求延续温和回升，主要受订单边际改善推动，行业逐步脱离淡季低位。
库存方面：过去一周铝锭社会库存下降1.7万吨至59.6万吨，铝棒社会库存下降0.3万吨至12.8万吨，库存总量略高于近年同期水平。现货方面：华东、中原、华南地区现货贴水略有扩大，铝棒加工费维持在合理区间。
铝市基本面矛盾有限，季节性库..
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