节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利好参考度：6/10
全球AI竞赛白热化，正将铜与电推向资源结构性短缺的风口浪尖。高盛最新报告警告：美国AI数据中心爆炸式增长推高电力需求，电力市场紧张或成制约其AI进展的关键瓶颈；而铜作为电气化和AI基建的刚需金属，长期看涨逻辑坚不可摧——这场铜电之争，或将重塑全球AI竞争格局。
美国电力告急：AI数据中心“吃电”太猛，备用容量亮红灯。高盛数据显示，AI驱动下美国数据中心容量11月创历史新高，年化电力需求增速近3%（超GDP增速），但电力供应已捉襟见肘。备用容量告急：美国多数区域电力市场备用发电容量处于或低于安全运行阈值，去年夏季弗吉尼亚州PJM市场实时电价飙升；分布极度集中：72%数据中心挤在仅占全国1%的县域，局部负荷过载风险陡增；未来更严峻：煤电年退役5%、可再生能源建设滞后，叠加数据中心扩张，2026年备用容量将下降，部分地区或停电，拖累AI算力部署。
铜价长期看涨：AI基建刚需+供应硬约束，高盛ň..
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