节点：上游（原材料/资源端）位置：上游情绪：利好参考度：6/10

铜物流逻辑正因特朗普政府关税举措，向基本面逻辑转变。特朗普政府8月1日起，对进口半成品铜产品如铜管、铜线等，及铜密集型衍生产品实施50%关税。

但铜原料及铜废料不在征税范围内，这与市场此前预期不同。

此政策致使COMEX与LME铜价差显著缩小。因COMEX库存高，COMEX铜价大幅下跌，LME铜价相对稳定。之前市场预期高关税，使大量铜材流向美国，今年上半年美国铜进口量与去年全年持平，库存持续上升。

随着政策落地，铜价驱动逻辑生变。COMEX铜交货利润消失，铜贸易流向从COMEX转向LMEǭ..

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