节点：中游（冶炼、中间品）位置：中游情绪：利空参考度：10/10


本文为一德期货对氧化铝及相关金属市场的分析。

宏观层面，本周中美会晤结束，关税扰动暂歇；美联储虽降息但讲话偏鹰，降息预期下降。下周无重大事件与数据公布，宏观影响权重减弱但仍偏正面。

原铝市场，产量稳定，因氧化铝价格下跌，即期冶炼利润走高，行业平均成本及边际高成本下降。消费方面，中国现货转为平水，巩义及佛山仍贴水较深；下游龙头企业开工率环比微降；铝棒加工费趋稳，进口亏损扩大，中国需求一般；铝锭与铝棒微幅去库，海外单日库存大增，影响伦铝结构，现货小幅贴水，但因大仓单回归及冶炼厂扰动，表现强势。

氧化铝市场，现货价格企稳，周度运行产能近一月下降约167万吨。海外铝厂减产致氧化铝消耗降低，进口仍有压力，总库存回升，电解铝厂补库较多。...供需压力仍过大。

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