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关注关税动态，铜价高位面临压力【机构评论】

来源：正信期货

本周内，铜价呈现出冲高后回落的态势，价格重心围绕 79000 一线上下震荡。当下，“反内卷”运动在市场上盛行，以新质工业品多晶硅与传统工业品焦煤为首，国内大宗商品普遍上涨，但铜价的表现相对克制。目前，已临近美国此前宣布正式加征铜关税的时间节点，若 50%的关税落地实施，受价差影响，铜价仍将承受较大压力。在国内，宏观政策对市场的驱动作用显著，然而海外市场的预期依旧不足，市场对降息的预期定价在 9 月，且美联储的独立性多次遭受冲击，市场持续跟踪美国经济数据，最新公布的制造业 PMI 大幅下降，已跌至荣枯线以下。

从产业层面来看，在消费淡季，铜的期限结构逐渐走平。“反内卷”之风对铜价的影响并不明显，早在今年 1 月，工信部就印发了《铜产业ɫ..

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